ICU mortality across prepandemic and pandemic cohorts in a resource-limited setting: A critical care resiliency analysis from South Africa

BACKGROUND: Hospital adaptation and resiliency, required during public health emergencies to optimize outcomes, are understudied especially in resource-limited settings.

RESEARCH QUESTION: What are the prepandemic and pandemic critical illness outcomes in a resource-limited setting and in the context of capacity strain?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study among patients admitted to ICUs at two public hospitals in the KwaZulu-Natal Department of Health in South Africa preceding and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2017-2022). We used multivariate logistic regression to analyze the association between three patient cohorts (prepandemic non-COVID-19, pandemic non-COVID-19, and pandemic COVID-19) and ICU capacity strain and the primary outcome of ICU mortality.

RESULTS: Three thousand two hundred twenty-one patients were admitted to the ICU during the prepandemic period and 2,539 patients were admitted to the ICU during the pandemic period (n = 375 [14.8%] with COVID-19 and n = 2,164 [85.2%] without COVID-19). The prepandemic and pandemic non-COVID-19 cohorts were similar. Compared with the non-COVID-19 cohorts, the pandemic COVID-19 cohort showed older age, higher rates of chronic cardiovascular disease and diabetes, less extrapulmonary organ dysfunction, and longer ICU length of stay. Compared with the prepandemic non-COVID-19 cohort, the pandemic non-COVID-19 cohort showed similar odds of ICU mortality (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.90-1.25; P = .50) whereas the pandemic COVID-19 cohort showed significantly increased odds of ICU mortality (OR, 3.91; 95% CI, 3.03-5.05 P < .0005). ICU occupancy was not associated with ICU mortality in either the COVID-19 cohort (OR, 1.05 per 10% change in ICU occupancy; 95% CI, 0.96-1.14; P = .27) or the pooled non-COVID-19 cohort (OR, 1.01 per 10% change in ICU occupancy; 95% CI, 0.98-1.03; P = .52).

INTERPRETATION: Patients admitted to the ICU before and during the pandemic without COVID-19 were broadly similar in clinical characteristics and outcomes, suggesting critical care resiliency, whereas patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19 showed important clinical differences and significantly higher mortality.

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute
Thomas B. McCabe and Jeannette E. Laws McCabe Fund, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania

George L Anesi, Stella M Savarimuthu, Jonathan Invernizzi, Robyn Hyman, Arisha Ramkillawan, Creaghan Eddey, Robert D Wise, Michelle T D Smith